New U.S. benchmark to boost market transparency, supporting battery supply chain growth.

With lithium batteries forecast to power a sixfold surge in United States graphite demand by 2034, Fastmarkets has launched a new price assessment that aims to provide greater transparency and reliability benchmarks to manufacturers, producers, and investors involved in U.S. graphite.

Established over 150 years ago, England-based Fastmarkets has built a reputation for delivering reliable price data, forecasts, and market analysis, serving as a strategic asset for customers navigating complex and often opaque markets.

Amid mounting shifts in the global battery supply chain, Fastmarkets has now introduced a new regional pricing benchmark for U.S. graphite, a critical step meant to bring much-needed transparency to a rapidly growing market.

Graphite demand, especially for battery-grade material, is projected to surge by more than 600% over the next decade, according to Amy Bennett, principal analyst at Fastmarkets. This significant increase underscores the importance of reliable pricing mechanisms and a robust supply chain as the global energy transition accelerates.

"This is a pivotal moment in the U.S. graphite sector, with the U.S. aiming to de-risk from China and become more self-sufficient in the graphite space, particularly for battery-grade materials," Bennett said. "The combination of incredible growth and the impact of the IRA and Section 301 tariffs will by necessity prompt the development of a US pricing premium – Fastmarkets has the expertise to deliver this new price to the market."

With graphite playing a key role in lithium-ion battery anodes for electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage, establishing regional benchmarks provides a clearer outlook for domestic producers, battery manufacturers, and investors at a time when competition for graphite resources is intensifying.

The U.S. currently grapples with significant challenges in securing supply as China dominates over 90% of the world's graphite refining capacity, and recent export controls have further increased the unpredictability of both natural and artificial graphite availability. Against this backdrop, the establishment of a U.S.-specific price benchmark could play a crucial role in differentiating regional markets and fostering an independent domestic graphite supply chain.

Graphite supply changes

To understand this projected sixfold growth in U.S. graphite demand over the coming decade, it's essential to examine the current baseline.

Today, the U.S. lacks any significant domestic graphite mining, with its supply chain heavily reliant on imports – particularly from China, which not only accounts for the 90% of global refining but also produces roughly 77% of all the mined graphite as well.

In 2023, U.S. demand stood at around 100,000 metric tons, primarily met through imports. Fastmarkets projects that U.S. demand may climb to 700,000 metric tons annually by 2034, driven by the use of graphite in the batteries powering the growing number of EVs traveling American highways sector and for energy storage systems to integrate renewable energy into the power grid.

This surging demand is amplified by regulatory measures like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which underscores the need for a stable, domestic supply chain for battery-grade materials. As EV adoption continues to grow, the need for sustainable, large-scale energy storage systems also intensifies.

Graphite is crucial to these technologies, serving as the primary material in the anodes of lithium-iron phosphate and nickel-cobalt-manganese lithium-ion batteries.

While lithium, cobalt, and nickel have attracted much attention, graphite is the largest single ingredient in lithium batteries, comprising about 28% of the overall mineral content.

The launch of a new U.S.-specific price benchmark for natural graphite flake follows a 30-day consultation period designed to provide transparent price references for the growing demand in the EV battery anode supply chain. This benchmark is introduced as the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative finalizes changes to Section 301 tariffs, with a 25% tariff on Chinese natural graphite imports set to take effect in 2026. This move further underscores the importance of clear, reliable pricing systems.

This new benchmark complements Fastmarkets' existing graphite price assessments in Europe and Asia, offering a monthly price for U.S. ports, excluding the Pacific states, and ensures that domestic stakeholders have access to essential pricing information.

By establishing a distinct regional pricing structure, this U.S.-specific benchmark aims to help manage the expected surge in demand, particularly as the new tariffs come into place. It counters the global market fluctuations, often driven by Chinese policies, and encourages investments in local extraction, refining, and production projects.

This benchmark also serves as a tool for industries seeking to secure predictable graphite contracts, insulating them from volatile international market swings and further supporting the case for a self-reliant U.S. graphite supply chain.

"The launch of this U.S. graphite flake price assessment marks a significant step forward for the industry, providing much-needed transparency and a reliable benchmark for market participants and potential investors," said Grace Asenov, Fastmarkets' base and energy metals editor for the Americas. "This new price complements existing benchmarks in Europe and Asia, providing a comprehensive view of the global graphite market."