The Elements of Innovation Discovered
The Elements of Innovation Discovered
Metal Tech News - September 4, 2024
Adamas forecasts that robotics will be the largest driver of demand for rare earth magnets by 2040.
Advanced air mobility is a rising driver of demand for NdFeB magnets and the rare earths that go in them.
Pullover electric vehicles, robots are expected to be the biggest driver of demand for magnet rare earths by 2040, according to the latest market outlook by Adamas Intelligence.
"From a small demand category today led by industrial and consumer service robots, we forecast that robotics will grow to become the single largest NdFeB (neodymium-iron-boron magnet) demand driver by 2040 on the back of soaring growth in professional service robot production for manufacturing, hospitality, transportation and logistics sectors," the rare earths and battery materials research firm penned in its Rare Earth Magnet Market Outlook to 2040 report.
Robots are among a growing number of technologies enabled by the world-leading magnetic strength of rare earth magnets that efficiently convert energy into motion and vice versa. Currently, EV drive motors and wind power generators, automotive micromotors, sensors, and speakers are the largest demand drivers for these powerful permanent magnets.
Following a 1.8% drop in demand for NdFeB magnets in 2022 due to economic headwinds in the wake of the pandemic, these technologies drove a strong 13.3% rebound in demand during 2023.
Advanced air mobility is a rising driver of demand for NdFeB magnets and the rare earths that go in them.
Much like robotics, advanced air mobility is in its nascent stages of rare earths demand but is expected to take off as recreational and commercial drones give way to larger electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing aircraft for the transportation and delivery sectors.
With robotics and advanced air mobility grabbing larger market shares, Adamas forecasts that the demand for NdFeB magnets will increase at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.7% out to 2040. This, in turn, will drive a similar rate of demand growth for the rare earths that go into these magnets – didymium (a mixture of neodymium and praseodymium), dysprosium, and terbium.
While the rare earth supply side is also expected to grow at a healthy rate of CAGR of 5.1% out to 2040, this falls well short of keeping pace with the demand being driven by EVs, robots, and advanced air mobility.
To close the widening supply gap, Adamas calculates that China will need to increase production at its famed Bayan Obo rare earths mine in Mongolia by five-fold, "massively depleting the country's reserves." To fill the rare earths shortfall outside of China, the research firm estimates that it will require the development of 20 to 30 modest-scale mines, above and beyond those already in the pipeline.
The inability to fill the widening rare earth supply gap could hold back future-leaning technologies.
"Between 2030 and 2040, we see potential for supply shortages of NdFeB magnets, constrained by increasingly tight availability of upstream rare earth feedstocks, to become a major limitation for robotics, advanced air mobility, electric vehicle and other end-user sectors," Adamas penned in a summary of its report.
With more than 16 years of covering mining, Shane is renowned for his insights and and in-depth analysis of mining, mineral exploration and technology metals.
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